Every two years a financial and economic evaluation is done by the IMF, the so called Article 4 Mission.
Economic growth went from weak (2017) to broadly positive (2019).
IMF delegates were on Aruba for two weeks and met with all sectors; public, private, NGO’s, Government and opposition members.
For 2019 the IMF anticipates a real economic growth of 0.7%, equivalent to 2.4% nominal growth, while the Government has only a 1% nominal growth included in their budget.
The IMF is optimistic that the Aruban economy will grow more than anticipated.
For the years after 2019, the IMF assesses a real economic growth of 1.1%, equivalent to a 3% nominal growth, which is again higher than what the Government has projected.
The IMF was also positive with the financial economic plan to restructure the public finances, including the fiscal reform.
According to the IMF, inflation over the last year reached 3.6% due to the increase in fuel prices and the crisis tax introduced last year. The IMF also projects a reduced inflation of 1.7% for this year.
The biggest threat is the current situation in Venezuela, although Aruba has managed to absorb the crisis partially to avoid being affected by Venezuela by importing produce from other countries. Venezuelan tourists have been replaced by tourists from other countries.
For more information you can consult the report on: https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ABW